{
  "snapshot": "17 September 2026",
  "away": {
    "n": 16,
    "pre": 12.104166666666668,
    "post": 27.187499999999996,
    "change": 15.083333333333332,
    "ratio": 2.246127366609294,
    "change_ci": [
      3.911060606060603,
      28.13343137254901
    ],
    "increases": 14
  },
  "home": {
    "n": 10,
    "pre": 15.266666666666666,
    "post": 3.5333333333333337,
    "change": -11.73333333333333,
    "change_ci": [
      -20.555833333333336,
      -3.6362878787878845
    ],
    "decreases": 8
  },
  "contrast": {
    "change": 26.816666666666663,
    "ci": [
      12.442723214285712,
      42.28695853462156
    ]
  },
  "sample": {
    "legs": 87,
    "journeys": 51,
    "eligible": 26,
    "excluded": 25,
    "blocks": 12,
    "dated_encounters": 9457
  },
  "transit": {
    "connections": 36,
    "productive": 23,
    "encounters": 867,
    "exceptional": 477,
    "other": 390,
    "record_day": 479,
    "runner_up_day": 170
  },
  "decay": {
    "n": 11,
    "early": 35.21212121212121,
    "later": 22.613636363636363,
    "composition": {
      "included_n": 11,
      "included_early": 35.21212121212121,
      "excluded_n": 5,
      "excluded_early": 9.533333333333333
    }
  },
  "origin_split": {
    "home_to_elsewhere": {
      "n": 10,
      "blocks": 10,
      "pre": 2.833333333333333,
      "post": 18.566666666666666,
      "change": 15.73333333333333,
      "ratio": 6.552941176470589,
      "median_pre": 1.5,
      "median_post": 15.0,
      "median_change": 13.833333333333334,
      "increases": 9,
      "decreases": 1,
      "ties": 0,
      "change_ci": [
        7.199761904761903,
        24.636426767676763
      ],
      "leave_one_block_out": [
        13.518518518518519,
        17.51851851851852
      ]
    },
    "elsewhere_to_elsewhere": {
      "n": 6,
      "blocks": 4,
      "pre": 27.555555555555557,
      "post": 41.55555555555556,
      "change": 13.999999999999998,
      "ratio": 1.5080645161290323,
      "median_pre": 19.0,
      "median_post": 22.166666666666664,
      "median_change": 13.666666666666666,
      "increases": 5,
      "decreases": 1,
      "ties": 0,
      "change_ci": [
        -26.33333333333334,
        49.77777777777777
      ],
      "leave_one_block_out": [
        4.399999999999998,
        25.599999999999998
      ]
    },
    "elsewhere_to_home": {
      "n": 10,
      "blocks": 10,
      "pre": 15.266666666666666,
      "post": 3.5333333333333337,
      "change": -11.73333333333333,
      "ratio": 0.23144104803493454,
      "median_pre": 7.0,
      "median_post": 2.5,
      "median_change": -6.166666666666667,
      "increases": 2,
      "decreases": 8,
      "ties": 0,
      "change_ci": [
        -20.555833333333336,
        -3.636287878787885
      ],
      "leave_one_block_out": [
        -13.555555555555554,
        -9.074074074074073
      ]
    },
    "away_pooled": {
      "n": 16,
      "blocks": 10,
      "pre": 12.104166666666668,
      "post": 27.187499999999996,
      "change": 15.083333333333332,
      "ratio": 2.246127366609294,
      "median_pre": 2.666666666666667,
      "median_post": 21.166666666666664,
      "median_change": 13.666666666666666,
      "increases": 14,
      "decreases": 2,
      "ties": 0,
      "change_ci": [
        3.911060606060604,
        28.133431372549012
      ],
      "leave_one_block_out": [
        10.261904761904761,
        18.88095238095238
      ]
    }
  },
  "calendar_reference": {
    "eligible_calendar_centres": 960,
    "single_day_sd": 19.13912370025587,
    "iid": {
      "away": {
        "n": 16,
        "interval": [
          -10.791666666666666,
          9.458333333333332
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.0033
      },
      "home": {
        "n": 10,
        "interval": [
          -14.000833333333325,
          11.866666666666667
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.03382
      },
      "home_to_elsewhere": {
        "n": 10,
        "observed_change": 15.73333333333333,
        "interval": [
          -14.000833333333325,
          11.866666666666667
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.01042
      },
      "elsewhere_to_elsewhere": {
        "n": 6,
        "observed_change": 13.999999999999998,
        "interval": [
          -16.0,
          15.222222222222221
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.03182
      },
      "elsewhere_to_home": {
        "n": 10,
        "observed_change": -11.73333333333333,
        "interval": [
          -14.000833333333325,
          11.866666666666667
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.03382
      }
    },
    "schedule_shift": {
      "away": {
        "offsets": 965,
        "interval": [
          -10.608333333333334,
          9.21666666666666
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.004145077720207254
      },
      "home": {
        "offsets": 965,
        "interval": [
          -15.036666666666665,
          12.8
        ],
        "one_sided_fraction": 0.03730569948186528
      }
    },
    "note": "iid draws: numpy default_rng(888) per group, 100,000 draws of n eligible calendar centres with replacement; one_sided_fraction is the share of draws at or beyond the observed change in its direction. Not causal p-values."
  },
  "method_notes": {
    "medians": "median across journey-specific three-day mean encounter counts; change median is paired",
    "origin": "First-departure airport relative to residence; not proof that all before-days were spent at home.",
    "subgroup_intervals": "20000 joint resamples of all 12 contributing travel blocks; empty-subgroup draws omitted; seed 888; post-hoc descriptive intervals",
    "privacy": "This page adds no flight records to what the encounter archive already shows."
  },
  "walking": {
    "groups": {
      "home_to_elsewhere": {
        "n": 10,
        "blocks": 10,
        "pre_km_day": 5.647298518876268,
        "post_km_day": 6.098549103622579,
        "pre_encounters_day": 2.833333333333333,
        "post_encounters_day": 18.566666666666666,
        "pre_encounters_km": 0.6024721698701371,
        "post_encounters_km": 3.2507052966101093,
        "change_encounters_km": 2.6482331267399717,
        "change_ci": [
          0.9673543292487644,
          4.6743764570511654
        ],
        "increases": 9,
        "decreases": 1,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 0.5017148152984704,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 3.044439972720387
      },
      "elsewhere_to_elsewhere": {
        "n": 6,
        "blocks": 4,
        "pre_km_day": 7.996727191880544,
        "post_km_day": 8.169595061627378,
        "pre_encounters_day": 27.555555555555557,
        "post_encounters_day": 41.55555555555556,
        "pre_encounters_km": 2.9285418334865505,
        "post_encounters_km": 4.362174611379094,
        "change_encounters_km": 1.4336327778925428,
        "change_ci": [
          -1.4210427794834593,
          3.3435323684820237
        ],
        "increases": 5,
        "decreases": 1,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 3.4458541468732378,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 5.086611422240763
      },
      "elsewhere_to_home": {
        "n": 10,
        "blocks": 10,
        "pre_km_day": 6.98647147629506,
        "post_km_day": 5.144456622080009,
        "pre_encounters_day": 15.266666666666666,
        "post_encounters_day": 3.5333333333333337,
        "pre_encounters_km": 2.0663564140229953,
        "post_encounters_km": 0.724018851289907,
        "change_encounters_km": -1.3423375627330878,
        "change_ci": [
          -2.5369437513846553,
          -0.29368700976354983
        ],
        "increases": 2,
        "decreases": 8,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 2.185175552275011,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 0.6868234281864223
      },
      "away_pooled": {
        "n": 16,
        "blocks": 10,
        "pre_km_day": 6.528334271252873,
        "post_km_day": 6.875191337874378,
        "pre_encounters_day": 12.104166666666668,
        "post_encounters_day": 27.187499999999996,
        "pre_encounters_km": 1.4747482937262923,
        "post_encounters_km": 3.6675062896484785,
        "change_encounters_km": 2.1927579959221863,
        "change_ci": [
          1.0768602825008486,
          3.804346492154189
        ],
        "increases": 14,
        "decreases": 2,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 1.8540972572385945,
        "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 3.9544353987980254
      }
    },
    "priority_sensitivity": {
      "phone_first": {
        "home_to_elsewhere": {
          "n": 10,
          "blocks": 10,
          "pre_km_day": 4.717901740261089,
          "post_km_day": 5.003196588847153,
          "pre_encounters_day": 2.833333333333333,
          "post_encounters_day": 18.566666666666666,
          "pre_encounters_km": 0.7395392679619401,
          "post_encounters_km": 4.038246845953635,
          "change_encounters_km": 3.2987075779916943,
          "change_ci": [
            1.268718835031021,
            5.711354748113095
          ],
          "increases": 9,
          "decreases": 1,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 0.60054945806831,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 3.7109608501201903
        },
        "elsewhere_to_elsewhere": {
          "n": 6,
          "blocks": 4,
          "pre_km_day": 6.454430464419715,
          "post_km_day": 7.2631188874098696,
          "pre_encounters_day": 27.555555555555557,
          "post_encounters_day": 41.55555555555556,
          "pre_encounters_km": 3.7461239867751837,
          "post_encounters_km": 4.829788681584654,
          "change_encounters_km": 1.0836646948094708,
          "change_ci": [
            -2.2055098071336716,
            3.4266473892556384
          ],
          "increases": 5,
          "decreases": 1,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 4.2692466372450015,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 5.7214477967019555
        },
        "elsewhere_to_home": {
          "n": 10,
          "blocks": 10,
          "pre_km_day": 5.986945452938103,
          "post_km_day": 4.369542481352272,
          "pre_encounters_day": 15.266666666666666,
          "post_encounters_day": 3.5333333333333337,
          "pre_encounters_km": 2.3441486929825714,
          "post_encounters_km": 0.8234458770607086,
          "change_encounters_km": -1.5207028159218625,
          "change_ci": [
            -2.7726418148593646,
            -0.37091659701423274
          ],
          "increases": 2,
          "decreases": 8,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 2.5499926108687903,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 0.8086277564327167
        },
        "away_pooled": {
          "n": 16,
          "blocks": 10,
          "pre_km_day": 5.3691000118205725,
          "post_km_day": 5.850667450808172,
          "pre_encounters_day": 12.104166666666668,
          "post_encounters_day": 27.187499999999996,
          "pre_encounters_km": 1.8670085375169065,
          "post_encounters_km": 4.335075034315267,
          "change_encounters_km": 2.468066496798361,
          "change_ci": [
            1.154377496758233,
            4.476996338674709
          ],
          "increases": 14,
          "decreases": 2,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 2.2544125905679198,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 4.646905712654118
        }
      },
      "watch_only": {
        "home_to_elsewhere": {
          "n": 8,
          "blocks": 8,
          "pre_km_day": 4.768627591041044,
          "post_km_day": 5.470067529541668,
          "pre_encounters_day": 3.541666666666667,
          "post_encounters_day": 19.041666666666664,
          "pre_encounters_km": 0.8496280154475117,
          "post_encounters_km": 3.6125095751591885,
          "change_encounters_km": 2.7628815597116767,
          "change_ci": [
            0.7750445433443125,
            5.3920548698295
          ],
          "increases": 7,
          "decreases": 1,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 0.7427014584490714,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 3.481066104546273
        },
        "elsewhere_to_elsewhere": {
          "n": 5,
          "blocks": 4,
          "pre_km_day": 6.424019059533333,
          "post_km_day": 6.802895164783332,
          "pre_encounters_day": 19.866666666666667,
          "post_encounters_day": 30.0,
          "pre_encounters_km": 2.6347883944152715,
          "post_encounters_km": 3.8293479947780624,
          "change_encounters_km": 1.1945596003627914,
          "change_ci": [
            -1.587205278265245,
            3.649889679452675
          ],
          "increases": 4,
          "decreases": 1,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 3.0925603555276284,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 4.40988715441354
        },
        "elsewhere_to_home": {
          "n": 8,
          "blocks": 8,
          "pre_km_day": 6.244093604125,
          "post_km_day": 4.785766775875,
          "pre_encounters_day": 12.791666666666666,
          "post_encounters_day": 2.958333333333334,
          "pre_encounters_km": 1.8589854896558962,
          "post_encounters_km": 0.7254767971571296,
          "change_encounters_km": -1.1335086924987665,
          "change_ci": [
            -2.376383517578569,
            -0.034866861626576505
          ],
          "increases": 2,
          "decreases": 6,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 2.0486026439796134,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 0.6181524240266493
        },
        "away_pooled": {
          "n": 13,
          "blocks": 8,
          "pre_km_day": 5.4053166173842335,
          "post_km_day": 5.982693543096153,
          "pre_encounters_day": 9.820512820512821,
          "post_encounters_day": 23.256410256410255,
          "pre_encounters_km": 1.5362281612043422,
          "post_encounters_km": 3.6959089673202947,
          "change_encounters_km": 2.159680806115951,
          "change_ci": [
            0.9010610924096439,
            4.266405331339249
          ],
          "increases": 11,
          "decreases": 2,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_pre": 1.816824714565048,
          "ratio_of_total_counts_to_km_post": 3.887280885922604
        }
      }
    },
    "method": "Exploratory reconstruction of Apple Health walking-and-running distance. Watch-first overlap priority; phone-first and watch-only checks. Window-local days; positive distance recorded on every comparison day. Rates computed per three-day window, then averaged equally over journeys. No daily Health records are published."
  },
  "revised": "20 September 2026",
  "home_rate_by_period": {
    "rule": "Public register only. A day is a home day when every located encounter that day falls inside a bounding box around the residence of the time; a day with no located encounter inherits the class when the nearest located days on both sides agree. Encounters per home day include zero days. Crude check for a trend in home encounter rates; not the flight-based classification used above.",
    "periods": {
      "2024": {
        "home_days": 242,
        "encounters_per_home_day": 2.6198347107438016,
        "median": 0.0,
        "zero_share": 0.6570247933884298
      },
      "2025": {
        "home_days": 174,
        "encounters_per_home_day": 4.436781609195402,
        "median": 1.0,
        "zero_share": 0.29310344827586204
      },
      "2026_q1": {
        "home_days": 85,
        "encounters_per_home_day": 3.6705882352941175,
        "median": 1.0,
        "zero_share": 0.4235294117647059
      },
      "2026_since_move": {
        "home_days": 75,
        "encounters_per_home_day": 3.9466666666666668,
        "median": 1.0,
        "zero_share": 0.29333333333333333
      }
    },
    "all_home_days": {
      "home_days": 576,
      "encounters_per_home_day": 3.4913194444444446
    },
    "all_away_days": {
      "away_days": 285,
      "encounters_per_day": 25.20701754385965
    }
  },
  "non_flight_journeys": {
    "note": "Journeys made without a flight, recorded from the practitioner’s calendar and the public register under the same three-day rule. Shown beside the flight sample; not pooled into its means, medians or intervals. Walking distance not reconstructed. Daily counts are encounters by camera local date.",
    "thessaloniki": {
      "outward": {
        "travel_day": "2026-08-23",
        "mode": "bus and ferry",
        "origin": "home",
        "before_days": [
          "2026-08-20",
          "2026-08-21",
          "2026-08-22"
        ],
        "before_counts": [
          1,
          12,
          1
        ],
        "before": 4.666666666666667,
        "after_days": [
          "2026-08-24",
          "2026-08-25",
          "2026-08-26"
        ],
        "after_counts": [
          55,
          36,
          1
        ],
        "after": 30.666666666666668,
        "change": 26.0,
        "travel_day_count": 0,
        "note": "The before-window opens the day after a return by air; the rule disqualifies only flights inside a window."
      },
      "return": {
        "travel_day": "2026-09-09",
        "mode": "car and ferry",
        "origin": "elsewhere",
        "before_days": [
          "2026-09-06",
          "2026-09-07",
          "2026-09-08"
        ],
        "before_counts": [
          12,
          134,
          2
        ],
        "before": 49.333333333333336,
        "after_days": [
          "2026-09-10",
          "2026-09-11",
          "2026-09-12"
        ],
        "after_counts": [
          50,
          51,
          11
        ],
        "after": 37.333333333333336,
        "change": -12.0,
        "travel_day_count": 53,
        "after_days_walks_km": [
          13.8,
          14.1,
          11.18
        ],
        "note": "After-days were long walks out of town (calendar); two travel-day encounters at the ferry port."
      },
      "if_folded_into_means": {
        "home_to_elsewhere": {
          "n": 11,
          "change": 16.666666666666668,
          "increases": 10
        },
        "elsewhere_to_home": {
          "n": 11,
          "change": -11.757575757575758,
          "decreases": 9
        },
        "note": "Means only; medians and intervals not recomputed."
      }
    },
    "ship": {
      "vessel": "M/V Sea Spirit",
      "embark": "2026-06-25",
      "disembark": "2026-07-05",
      "full_days_at_sea": [
        "2026-06-26",
        "2026-07-04"
      ],
      "daily_counts_at_sea": [
        25,
        5,
        8,
        0,
        8,
        2,
        2,
        6,
        1
      ],
      "encounters_at_sea": 57,
      "per_day_at_sea": 6.333333333333333,
      "ny_alesund": 21,
      "embark_and_disembark_days": [
        46,
        7
      ],
      "status": "Description, not an observation: a new shore most days leaves no three-day windows; the first days at sea already serve as after-days of the flight arrival at Longyearbyen."
    }
  }
}